Exactly ten years after the fateful 2016 referendum, the British political landscape has shattered again. Sir Keir Starmer has resigned. His promises to end the chaos blew up after cabinet mutinies, an economic black hole, and local election disasters. Now, Westminster is bracing for its seventh prime minister in a decade, with Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham leading the charge.
With Starmer out, business leaders are immediately putting the screws on his likely successor. The demand? Put Britain back on a path toward the European Union. For an alternative perspective, consider: this related article.
If you look at the polls, it seems like a no-brainer. A fresh European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) survey reveals that 75% of British voters want closer ties with Brussels. Even more shocking, 63% would now accept the return of free movement in exchange for better trade access. The public has massive buyer's remorse.
But don't expect the next tenant of 10 Downing Street to simply wave a magic wand and undo the last decade. Reversing Brexit is a fantasy. It ignores the brutal realities of modern European politics and the structural damage already done. Similar insight regarding this has been published by The Washington Post.
The Rejoin Illusion
People who think a new prime minister can just sign a paper and get back into the EU are dreaming. The continent has moved on. The UK cannot just walk back into its old setup.
Before 2020, Britain enjoyed a legendary "sweetheart deal." It had a massive budget rebate. It stayed out of the euro currency. It opted out of the Schengen passport-free travel zone.
Former EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier recently hinted that the UK could theoretically keep some special terms. But the reality in Brussels is far colder. If the UK rejoins, it applies like any other applicant. That means committing to the Euro. It means joining Schengen. No British leader—not even a radical pro-EU reformer—could sell that to the electorate.
The Economic Reality Check
Let's look at the numbers. Economists at the UK in a Changing Europe think tank estimate Brexit made the British economy 2% to 6% smaller than it otherwise would have been. That hurts.
Starmer thought he could fix this with a gentle "reset" of relations, but experts noted his plan would add a pathetic 0.5% to GDP over fifteen years.
To get the real benefits, the next prime minister has to talk about the Single Market or a Customs Union. But Brussels doesn't do à la carte menus anymore. They won't give Britain frictionless trade unless the UK accepts EU rules without having a vote on them. It's a political nightmare.
The Fear of Nigel Farage
The biggest reason the next prime minister will drag their feet is survival.
Nigel Farage and his Reform UK party are lurking. Reform UK has been surging in the polls, feasting on Labour’s vulnerabilities. They thrive on the narrative that the Westminster elite is betraying the will of the people.
If Andy Burnham or any other successor tries to officially reverse Brexit, it gives Farage the ultimate political weapon. The ghost of the 2016 culture war would instantly wake up, ripping the country apart all over again.
What Will Actually Happen
The next leader won't launch a dramatic bid to rejoin. Instead, expect slow, quiet, institutional alignment.
Security is the backdoor. The ongoing war in Ukraine and fears over shifting US foreign policy have forced both sides together. A UK-EU security and defence partnership was struck in 2025, and despite a temporary collapse in industrial cooperation talks later that year, the upcoming July 2026 summit is the perfect stage for a quiet comeback.
We will see deeper intelligence sharing, joint cyber defence, and eventually, a compromise on defense-industrial cooperation. It's safe. It doesn't provoke the anti-EU press, and it satisfies the public's desire to look to Europe rather than Washington for security.
Your Next Steps
If you are running a business or managing investments affected by UK-EU trade, stop waiting for a dramatic political shift.
- Ignore the Rejoin headlines: Do not budget or plan for a sudden return to the single market. The trade barriers we have now are staying for the foreseeable future.
- Watch the July 2026 Summit: Look closely at the defense and security agreements. This sector will see the fastest regulatory alignment and easiest cross-border cooperation.
- Optimize for the status quo: Focus on mastering current customs compliance and supply chain diversification rather than betting on political miracles.
