Donald Trump made it clear from the Oval Office this week that the United States isn't done with Iran. Speaking to reporters during a meeting with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Trump openly warned that American forces will likely target an underground nuclear installation known as Pickaxe Mountain "pretty soon" and "very heavily."
If you're wondering why a single mountain 140 miles south of Tehran is suddenly dominating national security briefings, the short answer is simple. Pickaxe Mountain is where Tehran is trying to bury its nuclear future so deep into solid rock that standard military strikes can't reach it.
Trump claims the US is monitoring every move around the site and won't hesitate to strike. But destroying a heavily fortified tunnel network hidden under hundreds of feet of granite is a completely different challenge than bombing above-ground facilities.
Here is what is actually going on at Pickaxe Mountain, why Washington is fixated on it, and what military analysts say about whether a strike would actually work.
What Trump Promised and What We Know
During his Oval Office comments, Trump addressed growing reports about activity at Pickaxe Mountain. Israeli intelligence assessments recently suggested that Iranian technicians moved thousands of advanced uranium-enrichment centrifuges into the mountain's deeply buried tunnels.
Trump didn't fully confirm those specific intelligence reports, taking a cautious stance on the exact whereabouts of the hardware while doubling down on the overall military threat.
"We follow the material," Trump told reporters. "That's where the action is, and we'll be hitting that area very probably pretty soon."
He argued that previous strikes already wiped out decades of Iranian progress, claiming Tehran would need 20 to 25 years to recover if the US stopped today. But he insisted Washington has no plans to walk away just yet.
According to Trump, any location where Iran even considers housing nuclear operations is fair game. His message to Tehran was straightforward: if you build it, we will hit it.
The Origin of Kuh-e Kolang Gaz
To understand why Pickaxe Mountain exists, you have to look back at what happened to Iran's primary nuclear hub at Natanz.
Pickaxe Mountain—known locally as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz—is situated barely two kilometers from the main Natanz enrichment complex. The mountain itself rises roughly 1,600 meters above sea level.
Construction on the mountain site didn't start yesterday. Tehran began digging into the rock back in 2020 after a suspicious explosion destroyed an above-ground centrifuge assembly workshop at Natanz. Iranian officials realized their surface buildings were far too vulnerable to sabotage and airstrikes.
Former Iranian nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi publicly admitted at the time that Iran was constructing a larger, more comprehensive hall "in the heart of the mountain near Natanz" to replace what was destroyed.
Satellite imagery analyzed over the years by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) reveals a complex design:
- Two pairs of heavily reinforced tunnel entrances on the eastern and western slopes.
- An underground complex buried at least 100 meters (328 feet) below solid rock.
- Heavy perimeter security, construction spoil piles, and reinforced blast doors.
Tehran claims the site is strictly meant for assembling advanced centrifuges for peaceful power generation. But because Iran has repeatedly denied access to inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Western defense officials suspect the underground halls are built to host covert uranium enrichment.
Why Destroying Pickaxe Mountain Isn't Simple
Trump's rhetoric makes a strike sound like a quick operation. The reality on the ground is far more complex.
The main issue is depth. Standard air-launched missiles and conventional precision bombs barely scratch the surface of a facility buried 100 meters under granite.
Even the US military's most powerful non-nuclear earth-penetrator—the 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP)—has physical limits. While designed to punch through dozens of meters of reinforced concrete or rock, a facility tucked deep beneath a 1,600-meter mountain peak presents severe targeting hurdles.
Military experts point out several key factors that complicate any aerial assault:
- Depth beneath solid rock: The main halls lie deep enough that a direct strike on the roof might fail to collapse the underground chambers.
- Tunnel reinforcement: Iranian engineers have spent years backfilling access points, reinforcing entrances, and installing heavy blast mitigation systems.
- Alternative tactics: Instead of trying to crush the main halls, a strike would likely focus on sealing the tunnel entrances, destroying power grids, and knocking out ventilation shafts to render the interior unusable.
Sam Lair, a researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, noted that recent satellite images show ongoing work around the tunnel mouths. Iran knows an attack is possible, so workers have been adding earth and defensive barriers to make penetrating munitions less effective.
If conventional bunker busters can't collapse the internal halls, Washington might be able to trap everything inside, but it won't necessarily destroy the equipment hidden deep within.
What the Intelligence Says About the Centrifuges
The urgency surrounding Pickaxe Mountain spiked after reports indicated Israeli officials shared fresh intelligence with Washington. The claim? Iran moved thousands of centrifuges into the mountain to protect them from ongoing conflict in the region.
Centrifuges are the heart of any nuclear program. They spin uranium hexafluoride gas at extreme speeds to separate isotopes. Without centrifuges, enriched uranium production stops completely.
Trump publicly downplayed the panic over moved centrifuges, pointing out that hardware without raw nuclear material isn't an immediate weapon. "It doesn't mean anything unless they have the material," Trump noted, emphasizing that trackable nuclear stock remains the true metric of threat.
Defense analysts like Mark Montgomery, a senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, also urge caution against assuming Pickaxe Mountain is an operational nuclear weapons site today.
Montgomery noted that while components have certainly been moved underground, Iran still faces massive hurdles. The loss of key nuclear scientists, damaged supply lines, and destroyed surface infrastructure make an immediate restart of a full-scale weapons program unlikely in the short term.
Still, leaving the site intact allows Iran to keep a fallback option ready for the future.
Geopolitical Fallout and Regional Escalation
Iran's military command didn't stay silent after Trump's statements. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which oversees Iranian military operations, warned that any strike on sensitive Iranian infrastructure would trigger immediate retaliation against American interests and regional allies.
Hardline media outlets in Tehran went even further, urging the regime to prepare pre-emptive target lists across the Gulf and officially withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
This back-and-forth highlight the precarious balance in the Middle East right now:
- US Objectives: Force Iran to accept strict terms regarding regional security and maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz by systematically destroying high-value targets.
- Iranian Strategy: Move sensitive assets deeper underground, rely on regional proxies, and threaten high-impact retaliation to raise the cost of further US strikes.
- IAEA Concerns: The UN watchdog remains completely locked out of Pickaxe Mountain, creating a dangerous blind spot for international monitors trying to track global nuclear materials.
Concrete Steps for Tracking This Escalation
If you want to understand how this conflict develops over the coming weeks, keep your eye on three key indicators rather than just political speeches:
- Satellite imagery updates from tunnel entrances: Watch whether Iran continues backfilling and fortifying the east and west entrances at Pickaxe Mountain, or if heavy transit activity resumes.
- IAEA statements on inspector access: Look for official updates from IAEA chief Rafael Grossi. Any change in inspector access—or formal declaration of nuclear material movement—will signal whether the site is becoming operational.
- Pentagon deployment patterns: Pay attention to heavy bomber deployments in the region, specifically B-2 Spirit flights, which are the only aircraft capable of carrying the heavy bunker-buster munitions needed for deep-penetration targets.
